Last time, the bot almost won and I refused to call it a win. This time I stopped watching individual trades and tested the whole strategy properly.
The verdict: it has no edge.
I ran 10 walk-forward tests across Bitcoin and Ethereum, on three timeframes, with real fees and slippage on every trade. The kind of test that splits the data in two, lets the strategy pick its best settings on the first half, then runs them on the half it has never seen. If the edge is real, it survives. It didn't.
Not the 15-minute version the bot actually runs. Not a slower 4-hour version. Not on Bitcoin, not on Ethereum. One result looked good, on Ethereum's 4-hour chart, but it ran on too few trades to mean anything, and I explain in the post why that one is a trap, not a discovery.
This isn't a sad ending. The whole point of running the bot as paper, in public, with nothing real on the line, was to find this out before it cost anything. It did its job.
If anyone ever shows you a bot with a perfect record and no losing weeks, ask them for the out-of-sample test with fees included. The silence is the most honest data point you'll get.
BitBrainers. We check the facts so you don't have to.
Disclosure: All signals shown are simulated DRY RUN results. Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results. This is not financial advice.